The number of international students studying at the higher education level around the world has grown significantly over the last two decades, rising from 2m in 1998 (when UNESCO records began) to 6.4m in 2020. The UK alone hosted a record 680,000 international students in the 2021/22 academic year, up 45 per cent on four years earlier.

However, the outlook for global student mobility has become less certain, in the context of the volatile global economic environment of recent times, following the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict. And the trend of slowing economic growth in key emerging economies such as China, and high current and forecast levels of macroeconomic and exchange rate risk in countries such as Nigeria and Pakistan.

The British Council commissioned Oxford Economics to assess the global outlook for the international student market, the specific geographies that present the most supportive macroeconomic conditions for future growth and the risk levels associated with each market. Policy-related factors, both in origin and destination markets, also play a pivotal role in shaping the future of outbound student mobility but are outside the scope of this report.

The aim of this report is to provide analysis around the likely impact of current and future economic trends on outbound student mobility over the period to 2030, at an aggregate global level and for 30 selected source markets. The research has been designed to provide reliable and up-to-date information to the UK education sector as well as to help the British Council to better design policies to support the activities of UK HEIs in this area. The report will also be of interest to policymakers in understanding the likely future trends in outbound student mobility and the sending countries in which this demand will be concentrated.

The report is organised into four chapters:

• The first chapter analyses the historical relationship between macroeconomic conditions and outbound student mobility and identifies the macroeconomic drivers which contribute to the growth and risk outlook for outbound student flows across countries.

• Based upon the drivers identified in the first chapter, the second chapter of the report reviews the macroeconomic outlook in the period to 2030 and associated macroeconomic risks in the markets of interest.

• The third chapter presents the Outbound Students Opportunity and Risk Index produced as part of this research, which aims to quantify both the growth potential and risks posed at individual market level across the 30 markets of interest in the study based on current and forecast macroeconomic conditions. The index results provide a holistic and rounded view of each market and facilitate cross-country comparison.

• The fourth chapter draws the key insights and conclusions from the analysis.

• Annex A contains a set of country factsheets, focussed on a subset of 11 markets of particular interest to the British Council. Each factsheet provides context around each country’s outbound student market and summarises the country’s index results.

• Annex B provides a summary of the indicators included in the Outbound Students Opportunity and Risk Index and associated computation methodology.

The 30 countries included in the analysis were selected by the British Council based on the current scale of international student flows to the UK, and include: Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Ghana, Hong Kong (SAR), India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), United States (US) and Vietnam.

It should be noted that throughout this report, the analysis focusses on total outbound student flows from the markets of interest, as opposed to UK recruitment specifically.