UK Q3 visa data shows significant drop in incoming students

Data on UK visa issuances in the third quarter of 2024 (July to September) was released last week (28 November). This is the main indicator of student trends for 2024 entry due to the timing of the UK’s academic year. The data shows a significant decrease, with visa issuances in the first three quarters of the year dropping by 16% compared to the same period in 2023. Looking specifically at the third quarter of the year there were a total of 261,996 student visa issuances, down 13% from Q3 2023.

(Unless otherwise noted, all figures in this article refer to newly issued Sponsored Study visas and cover main applicants only, excluding dependents)

Regional variation

This year’s student trends varied greatly from country to country. Declines were mostly concentrated in South Asia and West Africa. India saw the largest net decline overall, with visa issuances declining by more than 28,000 compared to January-to-September 2023 – representing a 27% drop. Meanwhile Nigeria saw an even larger decline in percentage terms, with visa issuances falling by 62% compared to the same period last year.

It seems likely that the drop is a result of changes to UK student visa policy that prevent most master’s degree students from bringing dependents to the UK. All three of these countries previously had a large number of dependent visas issued in previous years. Nigeria is also continuing to face economic challenges which will also have had a negative effect on student mobility.

However, despite the large drops, student numbers from these countries continue to be well above the pre-Covid level. India still had almost three times as many student visa issuances as in January-September 2019, while in Nigeria the number of student visa issuances was 2.5 times the pre-Covid level. This is likely a result of the introduction of the Graduate Route visa in 2021.

Meanwhile, China – which has re-taken its place as the UK’s largest single source of incoming international students – also saw a 5% drop in visa issuances. This is less likely to be related to visa policy, as only a small proportion of Chinese students bring dependents to the UK. Instead the main reasons are China’s poor economic performance combined with strong competition from alternative destinations, especially Australia and Hong Kong which have recently seen a strong increase in Chinese student numbers.

Looking at the rest of the top five sending countries, Pakistan saw a slight increase in student visa issuances (+5%), overtaking Nigeria to become the UK’s third largest student source – although this was substantially lower than last year’s growth rate which suggests that Pakistan has also been affected by changes in student visa policy. There was also a 6% increase in the number of students from the US.

Breaking down other sending countries by region:

• Several major East Asian sending countries or regions saw a continued drop in student numbers. Malaysia saw a 10% year-on-year decline while Hong Kong student numbers fell by 14% and Thailand had a 9% drop. These all reflect a continuation of previous trends, as all three had also experienced a similar drop last year. However, Indonesia saw modest growth with student numbers now well above the pre-Covid level, which makes it stand out in the region.
• In South Asia, aside from the trends in India and Pakistan discussed above, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka both saw very large drops in student visa issuances (45% and 41% respectively). These countries both previously had a relatively high proportion of students from these countries previously brought dependents to the UK, in common with other countries that also saw large decreases in student mobility. However, Nepal saw continued strong growth of +37% year-on-year, which reflects growing demand for overseas study from the country – although this growth was slower than the +95% increase we saw last year which suggests that Nepal too has been affected by the change in visa policies.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana – which like Nigeria previously had a large number of students bringing dependents – saw a 47% drop in student visa numbers, although Kenya had a 12% increase in visa issuances.
• Trends in the MENA region varied – Kuwait saw 5% growth and became the top sending country in the region, but Saudi Arabia experienced a 16% decline and Iran saw an even larger 44% year-on-year drop.
• EU student numbers saw moderate growth, with a 5% year-on-year increase in visa issuances to EU citizens in the January-to-September period. All the top ten sending countries in the region saw growth, with Germany accounting for the largest net increase in student numbers.
• Turkey was the strongest performer in Non-EU Europe, with an 11% increase in student numbers. Meanwhile the number of student visas issued to Russian citizens continued to fall, dropping by a further 4% year-on-year.

The table below gives the trend for the top 30 sending countries in terms of student visa issuances from January to September 2024:

Variation by level of study 

While General Student make up a large majority of the total, there was also a smaller decrease in issued Child Student visas (-4%). A slight increase in younger students from Mainland China (+4%) was offset by a 9% drop in Hong Kong students, with Spain and Russia also seeing significant declines.

The Home Office’s published data on level of study shows that trends in postgraduate study were much more negative than for bachelor’s degrees. Master’s degree student numbers for the first three quarters of 2024 were 23% lower than the equivalent period of 2023, while PhD student numbers fell by 9%. Meanwhile the number of visas issued for bachelor’s degree study saw a much smaller decline, falling by only 4% year on year. Sub-degree study fell by around 13% but the number of students granted visas for pre-sessional English courses increased by 6%. (When analysing level of study data, it is also important to note that data on level of study is not available for about 9,000 students, who represent about 3% of the overall total)

Trends in other visa types

There was unsurprisingly a very large drop in issued dependent visas as a result of the visa policy changes which mean these are no longer available for most master’s students. There was an overall 84% year-on-year reduction in visas issued to student dependents, with the average number of dependents per student falling from 0.28 in January-September 2023 to 0.05 in the same period of 2024. However, Saudi Arabia saw a much smaller reduction (-43%), likely because students on some government-funded scholarship schemes are not effected by the recent policy change; a handful of other countries including Indonesia, the US and South Korea also saw a much smaller drop in dependents than the overall average.

Meanwhile the trend in short-term study visas – which were not included in the analysis above – was also negative, with a 10% overall drop in student numbers. This was mainly due to a substantial 46% drop in students from Saudi Arabia, although Japan also saw a significant decrease. (Short-term study visas are required for courses lasting from 6 to 11 months, while visa data for students staying for less than 6 months is not available as these have now been combined with standard Visitor visa holders)

Data source

The full data can be downloaded from https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-system-statistics-data-tables