Summary:

Recently, three reports have been released which provide useful information and context about the Chinese market for overseas study and international qualifications. These reports are the Report of Development and Trends of Studying Abroad of China in 2016, published by China Education Online or eol.cn, the largest education portal website in China; 2016 Employment Survey Report on Chinese Students Returning from Overseas, released by Beijing think tank Center for China and Globalization (CCG) and education group New Oriental’s Haiwei Career subsidiary; and White Paper on Chinese Undergraduate Students Studying Abroad, from the Education International Cooperation Group, a leading Chinese education agent.

The first of these reports, the Report of Development and Trends of Studying Abroad of China in 2016, brings together recent trends and statistics from various sources. The first section discusses Chinese students going overseas, with the following key highlights:

- The number of Chinese students for overseas study has increased steadily. In 2015, over 520,000 students went overseas to study, and the number is expected to keep growing in 2016. The United States remains the main destination for Chinese students studying abroad, hitting 323,000 so far in 2016, an increase of 7.2 per cent compared with same time last year; however, despite strong growth, this is the lowest growth rate in the last nine years.

- China is still the world's top source of international students, accounting for one-third of international students in the United States and Canada, more than a quarter in Australia (and 36 per cent of HE students), up to 45 per cent in Japan and 62 per cent in South Korea. For contrast, Chinese students make up 19 per cent of HE students in the UK, although this represents 27 per cent of non-EU students.

- China remains the largest source country for UK international students In the UK, however, the growth rate of international students in the UK has dropped at 1.87 per cent.

- In the past, the majority of Chinese overseas students were at the postgraduate level, but the age at which students go abroad is becoming younger. In the US, almost 80 per cent of Chinese students were postgraduates 10 years ago, but in 2015, this proportion has dropped to 42 per cent.

- The fast rise in the number of Chinese primary and middle school students studying abroad is very obvious, especially in the first-tier cities. The proportion of school students studying in the world's major English-speaking countries (the United States, Canada, Australia and Australia) is at the top of the international students of these countries. As of November 2015, 34,578 Chinese students were studying in US primary and middle schools, accounting for 52 per cent of all international school students; this represents double-digit growth compared to the previous year.

- At the same time, the number of primary and secondary school students in the UK is growing rapidly, with an increase of 29.7 per cent. According to the latest Independent School Council census report, the number of Chinese students who have parents living overseas has increased to 6,280 this year, an increase of nearly 70 per cent compared to five years ago. Across all destinations, a large majority of Chinese school students studying abroad are at the high-school stage.

The report also discusses growth in students following an international programme at domestic schools. As discussed in previous SIEM analysis, restrictions on international programmes at public high schools mean that growth has shifted towards private international schools, which are largely domestically owned. The report comments that on the whole the quality of students in international classes of public high schools is superior to those studying at private international schools. It also discusses the increasing popularity of TNE programmes at the higher education level, which it links to enhanced quality of Sino-foreign cooperative education programmes.

The second report, 2016 Employment Survey Report on Chinese Students Returning from Overseas, is based on a survey of more than 1,000 returned students from overseas studies. It finds that more than 80 per cent of those who returned eventually landed a job that is not directly connected with the subject they studied. One-fourth had a starting monthly salary of only 5,000 RMB (£600) and only one third of them expressed contentment with their jobs. As a result, many returned students may notice that it has become increasingly difficult for them to find good-paying jobs that suit them.

The White Paper on Chinese Undergraduate Students Studying Abroad is also based on surveys, this time using data collected from 5,619 questionnaires and interviews for prospective undergraduate students. The top preferred destinations for overseas undergraduate education were the US (26.4 per cent), Australia (17.3 per cent), Canada (15.4 per cent ) and UK (13.7 per cent). It attributes the higher popularity of Australia and Canada to universities accepting Gaokao (Chinese university entrance exam) scores for direct undergraduate entry - a total of 28 Higher Education Institutions in Australia accept these scores, and more than half of the top 20 Universities in Canada also allow Chinese students to provide Gaokao results for admissions.

In the UK, the report discusses the high proportion of Chinese students taking foundation courses to progress to the undergraduate studies. Business is still the first choice for Chinese undergraduates to study in the UK (more than 60 per cent), followed by humanities (16 per cent) and natural sciences (13 per cent). The survey data shows that nearly ten per cent of undergraduate students are "following their parents arrangements" for overseas studies, and regarding the future development plans, the choice of students and their parents also tend to be consistent, 29 per cent of the students and 35 per cent of parents prefer further studies after graduation.

Regarding the factors for decision-making in choosing the institutions, the concern on security issues is more significant for the parents; students are more sensitive for college ranking and admission conditions (requirements)

Analysis by Kevin Prest and Xiaoxiao Liu:
1. Despite slowing economic growth, the number of students choosing international courses/classes in primary and secondary schools and the number of students choosing Sino-foreign cooperative education programmes in higher education are still increasing. Most of these students will choose to study abroad in the future, laying a strong foundation for overseas study. However, the growth rate is likely to slow over the next few years. According to the EOL report, the average annual growth rate of Chinese students choosing overseas studies will be around at 6 -10 per cent, with the number of students going abroad increasing to around 800,000 to 1 million in the next 5 to 8 years.

2. Undergraduate students will make up an increasingly large majority of Chinese students going abroad, but the fastest growth will be at the high school stage.

3. The United States will continue to be the top choice for Chinese students; however, the future destinations for Chinese students become more diversified (especially with strong competition from nearby countries in East Asia) according to the EOL report. This will allow more students from families with incomes closer to the national average to be able to afford to study abroad.

Sources:
1. Report of Development and Trends of Studying Abroad of China in 2016 by the China Education Online (eol.cn) - full text (Chinese): http://www.gol.edu.cn/zt/report/mulu.shtml
2. White Paper on Chinese Undergraduate Students Studying Abroad by Education International Cooperation Group (Chinese): http://edu.china.com.cn/2016-10/18/content_39510449.htm
3. 2016 Employment Survey Report on Chinese Students Returning from Overseas by Center for China and Globalization (CCG) and Haiwei Career of the New Oriental Education and Technology Group: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2016-10/14/content_27057461.htm
4. ISC report: Chinese pupils flock to UK independent schools: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2016-10/17/content_27085669.htm