According to data just released a total of 63,678 students have applied for places through JUPAS this year. This compares with 69,172 last year and 64,450 in 2012, which was the first year of secondary school students graduating with the HKDSE qualification.

The drop in numbers this year can largely be contributed to demographics. A shrinking youth population means that fewer secondary school graduates can be expected over the next few years.

With publicly funded undergraduate places limited to 12,600 (plus another 7,700 self funded places), a significant number of students who miss out on places locally will look for overseas options. As the number of local places has not changed from previous years, the number of JUPAS applications is indicative of the likely mobility trend.

While other factors need to be considered to give a precise prediction, such as rising household incomes, when looking at JUPAS applications in isolation we can assume that numbers to the UK this year will be similar to 2012.

This prediction excludes A-Levels and IB students, who do not apply locally through the JUPAS system.