4,100 Japanese students were on UK higher education courses in 2010/11, according to the latest HESA student data. The number fell 2 per cent compared with the previous year’s figure. Nevertheless, it is a cause for cautious optimism. Why?

Japanese student numbers to all key English-language destinations have been falling for several years. The 2010/11 Japanese student population in UK higher education represents only 60 per cent of the peak level in 2003/04. The immediate reasons for this decline have been the economic downturn and, until a couple of years ago, the strength of the pound against the yen. However, a more fundamental problem was the lack of a clear economic or career-driven incentive to study abroad. With degrees from high-ranking Japanese universities valued most highly by employers, and a rigid recruitment timetable that disadvantaged those studying overseas, study abroad was a lifestyle choice rather than an investment and, like other luxuries, was vulnerable to economic pressures.

This equation has been changed by the introduction of the “global personnel development” policy. Broadly supported by government, academia and, crucially, employers, this policy aims to produce graduates who can compete in the global market. Some effects of this policy have been an increase in scholarships for study abroad of all lengths, high-profile study abroad schemes introduced by local governments, and the introduction of more flexible recruitment systems that, in some cases, even favour those with overseas experience. Even more importantly, the idea that study abroad is an important career investment is beginning to take hold among today’s students, who are much more concerned about their future careers than earlier generations were.

The “global personnel development” issue began to receive widespread attention in 2010. And the 2 per cent drop in Japanese students in the 2010 entry UCAS figures came after falls of 8 per cent, 14 per cent, 14 per cent and 7 per cent respectively over the previous four years. Similarly, the number of Japanese students at ISC member boarding schools in 2010 was 435, equal to that in 2009, while there had been falls of 7 per cent, 11 per cent and 12 per cent respectively over the previous three years. Therefore, these figures represent a much slower decline than we had seen for several years previously, despite the ongoing negative repercussions of visa changes. Moreover, English UK’s statistics on English language students show that average Japanese student weeks per language centre grew by 6 per cent to 274 weeks in 2011, while Japan’s market share also grew. Taken together, these figures indicate that the Japanese market had bottomed out by 2010 and is likely to have begun to grow since then.