Economic implications

Nigeria continues to face the double challenge of the Covid-19 pandemic and collapse of the price of crude oil.

Nigeria’s economy has also been crippled by external factors too as the coronavirus pandemic resulted in a near-total shutdown of economic activity around the world. The accompanying steep drop in oil prices amid a drop in global demand left Nigeria drastically shorn of earnings given its dependence on the commodity as its biggest revenue source. For context, the United States slashed its Nigerian crude oil imports by 11.67 million barrels in the first five months of 2020, compared to what it bought in the same period of 2019. In fact, in the second quarter of 2020, local oil production dropped to its lowest since 2016 — when Nigeria endured a full year of negative growth. Thus, the decline in revenue following the sharp fall in the price of crude oil is taking a toll on the economy.

 The latest economic data shows Nigeria’s government continues to fall far short of projections in its Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, created in the aftermath of the 2016 recession to set out aggressive growth targets from 2017 to 2020. There’s also little sign of a quick turnaround in Nigeria’s economic woes as the World Bank predicts Africa’s most populous country is set for its worst recession in four decades.

The details of Nigeria’s economic contraction also come barely a week after a grim report on unemployment rates which showed 27.1% of Nigeria labour force (21.7 million Nigerians) are unemployed.

Movement and Restrictions

Local travel

All travellers coming to Nigeria must register their details on the Nigeria International Travel Portal. A negative Covid-19 result must also be presented before entry into Nigeria.

On 26 April, Anambra State imposed a curfew affecting six communities from 7pm to 6am daily. Ebonyi State also imposed a curfew from 28 April, covering all entry and exit points from 8pm to 6am. On 29 April, a state-wide curfew was imposed in Rivers State, from 10pm to 6am. These curfews have been imposed in response to reports of local insecurity. Other curfews may be announced at short notice. We advise you to follow local news and information outlets to remain informed. On 5 April, Owerri prison in Imo State was attacked. Reports suggest over 1,800 prisoners escaped. You should be extra vigilant if in the area.

There are ongoing protests about police conduct in Abuja, Lagos and other locations across Nigeria. These protests can occur spontaneously and unpredictably. You should pay attention to media and social media reports on protest locations, minimise movements and avoid demonstrations.

The al Qaeda-linked terrorist group Jamaat al Ansar al Muslimeen fi Bilad al Sudan, better known as Ansaru, claims to have killed at least six people, kidnapped dozens, and destroyed several vehicles during an ambush along the Kaduna-Zaira highway in Kaduna State. You should avoid regular patterns of travel or movement and aim to only travel during daylight hours.

Since January 2018, the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) has protested regularly in central Abuja and other cities. These protests, particularly in Abuja, have the potential to turn violent. Local media reported a fatality on 21 January 2020 when police allegedly fired gunshots and tear gas to disperse protesters near the Berger roundabout in Wuse, Abuja. Tensions remain heightened. You should monitor local media, avoid any demonstrations or large gatherings and follow any instructions from local police and security forces.

Inter-communal violence can occur throughout Nigeria, particularly in the central belt states. You should be alert to local government announcements and media reporting and seek advice before travelling to the affected areas. In recent months, violent incidents between farming and pastoralist communities have increased with many deaths in certain rural communities.

Political rallies, protests and violent demonstrations can occur with little notice throughout the country. International news events can sometimes trigger anti-Western demonstrations. There is the potential for increased tension on Fridays. Keep yourself informed of developments and if you encounter a threatening or intimidating situation, don’t try to make your way through it.

If you’re working in Nigeria, you should follow your employer’s local security guidelines. You are strongly advised to take professional security advice, be vigilant at all times and review your security measures regularly. Keep others informed of your travel plans and vary your routines. Make sure your accommodation is secure and consider pre-deployment training or travelling under close protection.

Be vigilant and take local advice on areas to avoid. Take particular care if you’re visiting crowded public places or attending events which attract large crowds. Criminals often use these situations as cover for robbery and theft.