Amid a seemingly stable political atmosphere throughout the year, the key economic indicators did well in 2017. However, last year the economy took a hit on spiralling rice prices and a messy banking sector. In the 2016-2017 fiscal, the Bangladesh economy grew by a record 7.28 percent, beating the 7.0 percent target. This was possible due to the increased revenue collection, high foreign currency reserves propelled by a spike in export and remittance inflow. But economists raised concerns over increased rice import and soaring prices following two rounds of floods and lack of necessary supervision in the banking sector.
As per ADB Bangladesh:
- GDP expected to grow by 7% in 2018 and 7.2% in 2019
- Inflation rates forecasted at 6.1% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019
- Per capita GDP growth is expected at 5.7% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019
Three economic rating agencies Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch arrive at same verdict on economic rating, i.e. they rated Bangladesh by ‘Ba3’, ‘BB’ and ‘BB’ respectively, which reflects economic outlook as stable. The agencies identified the banking sector, especially the state-owned banks, and the possibility of political uncertainty around the upcoming general elections as major risks.
The performance of the economy in the financial year 2018-2019 with the general election due in late 2018 is unpredictable since it depends on the actions and reactions of the contending political parties both during and after the upcoming election.
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Bangladesh has stable economic outlook
Bangladesh - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook
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