Summary:

The US Institute of International Education has released its annual data on the number of international HE students studying in the country in the 2016-17 academic year. Total enrolment growth fell to 0.8 per cent after excluding students on the Optional Practical Training (OPT) post-study work scheme, while enrolment of new students fell for the first time in a decade.

As in previous years, China and India dominate student enrolments in the US, now making up a combined total of 47 per cent of the country’s international students. However, the data shows a significant drop in the growth of Indian students – excluding OPT participants, the number of Indian students in the US grew by 4.5 per cent in 2016-17 compared to 19.4 per cent last year. Growth in students from Vietnam, another major recruitment market for the US, has also shown a substantial decline, while growth in Chinese students has slowed slightly from 5.9 to 5.3 per cent.

Numbers have also been affected by a substantial fall in students from Saudi Arabia and Brazil. In both cases this is due to cuts to major national scholarship schemes – the King Abdullah Scholarship Programme and the Science Without Borders programme respectively.

Analysis by Kevin Prest:

Comparable UK data for the 2016-17 academic year is not yet available, so it is not yet clear to what extent changes are driven by changes in outbound student trends as opposed to shifts in market share. However, there are some notable differences between trends in US student enrolments and those seen in UK Tier 4 visa data for 2016. In particular, the significant drop in Indian student growth in the US contrasts with the opposite shift in Indian students heading for the UK, which have returned to slight growth after several years of decline. This suggests that the change is largely due to a stabilisation of market share – the Indian market has now taken the UK’s visa environment into account, so future growth is likely to be closer to the trend for overall outbound students.

There are also a few countries where there is a large difference between UK and US trends. One concerning example is Malaysia, one of the largest recruitment markets for UK universities. US student numbers from this country grew by 3.4 per cent, whereas UK Tier 4 visa issuances fell by 14 per cent in 2016 after a drop of 7 per cent the previous year. This implies that the UK’s difficulties may not be entirely due to the country’s economic situation. In contrast, Tier 4 visas issued to students from neighbouring Indonesia grew substantially compared to a slight drop in US student enrolment, showing that the UK is increasing its market share in this fast-developing market.

As the current US data refers to the 2016-17 academic year, most new students will have started their course in September or October 2016 – before the election of President Trump. This means that there will only be a limited impact from the “Trump effect”, which many observers have commented makes the country less attractive internationally. Based on a survey of around 500 institutions, the IIE estimates that new student enrolment for the 2017-18 academic year is likely to have fallen by around 7 per cent with the majority of institutions saying that the social and political environment was a major factor in this decline.

Note: Although the headline figures in IIE announcements and many media reports include OPT participants, these have been excluded from the numbers and trends discussed above. This is because OPT is essentially a post-study work scheme, and OPT students are not comparable to international students as defined in the UK and most other countries.

Sources:

1. Press release and summary of findings: https://www.iie.org/Why-IIE/Announcements/2017-11-13-Open-Doors-Data

2. Statistical data: https://www.iie.org/Research-and-Insights/Open-Doors/Data/International-Students