The first data release for the 2021 admissions cycle has recently been published by UCAS. The data covers potential students who applied to undergraduate courses before October 15th 2020, who have historically made up around 15 per cent of all international applicants, and offers the first look at application trends for the 2021/22 academic year. In contrast to some predictions the data shows that the number of international applicants has increased by 8 per cent overall, with non-EU applicants up 20 per cent while EU applicant numbers have fallen by 19 per cent.

Breaking down the data by country shows that almost all major non-EU source countries saw double-digit growth, with the largest net increase in applicants coming from China whose applicant numbers grew by 31 per cent. In contrast there were large drops in applicant numbers from many European countries, with the notable exception of the Republic of Ireland where applicants were up 30 per cent. The table below shows application numbers from the leading overseas source countries.

Analysis by Kevin Prest, Senior Analyst, British Council International Education Services

The increase in non-EU applicants shows that there is still strong positive sentiment towards UK higher education and suggests that the long-term effect of COVID-19 could be much smaller than expected if the situation returns to normal before this cohort of students make their final study decisions. However, it is still very early in the 2021 application cycle and early applicants only represent a small proportion of all overseas students. There is a lot of time for these applicants to change their mind in the coming months, and early applicants also differ from the average applicant in important ways such as disproportionately applying for highly selective courses and institutions, which can make them less representative of overall student trends.

Alongside the data by country, UCAS also released information on the number of re-applying students. Re-applicant numbers have grown somewhat this year, making up 8 per cent of non-EU applicants compared to 6 per cent at the same point in the 2020 application cycle (perhaps as a result of students who were not aware of the deferral system and abandoned their application before re-applying for 2021), but this only makes up a small proportion of the overall growth in international student numbers. Deferrals from 2020 applications are not included in the 2021 applicant data and cannot be the cause of the growth.

In contrast to growth in non-EU applicants, the drop in students applying from EU countries is expected and likely related to the UK exiting the European Union in February 2020. Countries in central and eastern Europe have seen a particularly dramatic decrease in applicant numbers with a 45 per cent reduction in Poland and a 40 per cent drop in Romania.

Source

UCAS – 2022 cycle applicant figures – 15 October Deadline: https://www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-releases/applicant-releases-2021/2021-cycle-applicant-figures-15-october-deadline