As we reported last week, UCAS application data to the June 30th deadline has been released. Overall the release is good news from the East Asia region, with most markets demonstrating growth. Please find as follows a table summary of data and brief commentary on the reasons for growth or decline in each market:

Brunei saw a decrease of 20 students from 330 to 310, in line with the recent market decline following the reduction in scholarship provision. The market is now one third of the size compared with a decade ago, we therefore now see Brunei as a market for TNE/branch campuses as opposed to studying in the UK

Burma saw an increase for the second year in a row, although as a small market an increase of 16.7% in reality only means an additional 20 students. While the increase is encouraging we still primarily view Burma as a recruitment market for branch campuses in the region.

China has seen a large increase, from 15,240 to 19,760. This is driven by a combination of a number of factors, including positive communication around the UK's visa policy (although not much actual change yet) coupled with the 'Trump' effect, growth of internationals schools in China, falling pound sterling and perhaps more open acceptance of Gaokao

Hong Kong has seen a -5.9% decline. This is perhaps inevitable as a result of a significant decline in the secondary school student population. This year there are 47,005 HKDSE day school graduates compared with 50,642 last year and 65,270 five years ago. We still anticipate Hong Kong being a significant market for student recruitment in coming years considering the growth in international school student numbers.

Indonesia has seen growth of 6.5%, from 770 to 820. While postgraduate numbers have taken a roller-coaster ride in recent years this is in-line with what we see as the growth opportunity, i.e. an increase in self-funded undergraduate students as the middle class grows, awareness of the U.K. improves as the attractiveness of the U.S. wavers.

Japan has seen a small increase, from 500 to 530, an encouraging result for the U.K. considering Japan also faces a shrinking youth population. The increase comes amid a government push (and from local universities) to internationalise. Increasingly the lack of an international experience is seen as a risk for young people.

Korea has seen a marginal increase, albeit not to the extent of last year. Interest in overseas education in Korea continues to be driven by uncertainties around employment prospects upon graduation, amid a youth unemployment rate around 10%

Macau has seen a slight decrease of 10 students compared to last year, continuing a fluctuating trend in recent years. The Macau economy has been hit in recent years by a reduction in gaming revenues, and the fact that many students from Macau are Portuguese passport holders mean that some might feel uncertain about the status of EU students.

Malaysia is showing similar numbers to last year, suggesting that the decline of recent years has hopefully bottomed out. This correlates with reports from on the ground, where agents are reporting increased interest for the first time in a number of years.

Philippines is still a small market, however an increase of 33% over the last two years is encouraging. This is a market that could potentially develop further should a longer post-study work period be reintroduced.

Singapore has seen a similar number of applicants to last year, a pleasing result considering a recent decline in market size by tier 4 visa issuance. Singapore remains a strong market for recruitment of quality students.

Taiwan sees a 10.9% increase. While still a relatively small market for undergraduate, this is consistent with a recent trend of increasing interest in the earlier level of study, and is driven by the premium on salaries that graduates who have studied abroad can attain.

Thailand has a 9.9% increase, in a similar vein to Taiwan. This is a continuation of a trend of the Thai market getting younger, and we also see increased interest in boarding schools and pre-university academic programmes from this market.

Vietnam has the same number of applicants as last year, which is encouraging in light of a longer term decline over the last few years. Like the Philippines, Vietnam is a market which should benefit if longer post study work regulations are reintroduced.

The full data release can be found on the UCAS website.