Student visa data released in late November 2018 by the Home Office shows another year of strong growth, with Tier 4 visa issuances in the first three quarters of the year up 8.2 per cent compared to the same period last year. As the second quarter of the year accounts for a substantial majority of all student visas, this data is a strong indicator of non-EU student recruitment for the 2018-19 academic year.

As in previous years, China was responsible for the majority of net growth with an overall increase of 12.3 per cent, bringing the number of visas issued to Chinese students to 94,758. Although China's growth rate was slower than in last year, this is still higher than the overall market and China accounted for 45 per cent of all Tier 4 visas issued in the first three quarters of the year. Put another way, the number of study visas issued to Chinese students was larger than the next 23 largest markets combined.

Meanwhile, India re-took its position as the UK's second-largest student source in terms of issued Tier 4 visas with another strong increase, up 33 per cent over the same period last year. India overtook the US to reclaim its place as the UK’s second-largest student source. Bangladesh also saw very strong growth, although Pakistan's growth rate fell substantially to only 2.5 per cent compared to 37 per cent growth in the first three quarters of 2017.

Other highlights include another year of very strong growth in Kuwait, increasing by over 20 per cent which is slightly higher than last year's growth rate, and signs of recovery in Nigeria, with growth back in positive territory for the first time since 2013 (although still significantly below the peak seen before the crash of global commodities prices).

Despite strong overall growth, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam saw continued declines - although the decline in Vietnam was notably less severe than the previous year. Tier 4 Child student visa issuance was also down, decreasing 4.6 per cent compared to the same period last year with declines in this category in several key boarding school markets including China, Hong Kong and Russia.

Details for the UK’s top 25 visa issuance markets are given in the table below. Numbers refer to Tier 4 and equivalent visas issued to main applicants, and do not include short-term study (student visitor) visa or visas issued to dependents. In each case, the period refers only to the first three quarters of the year.

Visa statistics do not reflect changes in EU student numbers, as EU citizens do not require a visa to study in the UK. However, recent statistics from UCAS show that EU student numbers have also risen, at least at the undergraduate level. Acceptances for the 2018-19 academic year reached a new high of 31,855, up almost 4 per cent compared to the 2 per cent decline seen last year. Among the top 5 EU sending countries, student numbers from France and Italy fell moderately but Spain, Poland and Romania all saw double-digit growth.

Analysis by Kevin Prest, Senior Analyst, British Council International Education Services

There are many reasons for the increase in non-EU student numbers, but important drivers include the weakening pound (which makes UK education appear more affordable to international students) as well as continued economic growth in many important sending countries and UK universities' dedication to international student recruitment. 

Nevertheless, the increasing dominance of Mainland China is concerning as it is dangerous to rely too much on a single market. Although Chinese student numbers are still growing, this will not last forever. China is investing heavily in improving the quality of its domestic universities and expanding postgraduate provision, which will make overseas study comparatively less attractive, while the country's economic growth continues to slow down.

In the EU, student numbers appear to be rebounding compared to the decline last year, perhaps because of guarantees that students starting courses in 2018 will continue to pay home fees and be eligible for income-contingent student loans. But over the longer term it seems unlikely that these funding arrangements will remain indefinitely. Given the likely decrease in non-EU students expected after the UK exits the EU, non-EU students will only become more critical to UK education institutions.

Sources

UK immigration statistics, July to September 2018 (Home Office): https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-september-2018-data-tables

Applicants and acceptances by groups of applicants 2018 (UCAS): https://www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-end-cycle-data-resources/applicants-and-acceptances-groups-applicants-2018