Hong Kong is a market in transition following the implementation of education reforms and 2012 was the landmark year, when UK universities enrolled the first students completing the new Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education (HKDSE).

The phasing in of a new academic structure – three years of senior secondary education and four years of undergraduate study  – will inevitably have a major impact on the market for UK education, and bring with it a few surprises.

Pathway to UK undergraduate education completed
The good news has been that last summer, the pathway between the new academic structure and UK higher education was completed, when UK universities recruited the first HKDSE students.  Early data gathered by the British Council indicates that there were more applications from the HKDSE than the Hong Kong Advanced Level (HKALE) to the most competitive universities. Meanwhile, at the British Council’s Education UK exhibition in August some institutions reported being able to make more offers than they were expecting to HKDSE students who had missed out on local university places. 

Although much more will be known when the first visa, UCAS and HESA data is released on the 2012 admissions cycle, there are early indications that the reforms should have a positive impact for UK schools, colleges and universities in the short to medium term, although the prospect for significant market growth is less certain.

The positive news for the UK was that some of Hong Kong’s elite local schools which have large numbers of high performing students saw a sharp increase in applications to leading UK universities, and a very high success rate in offers achieved. There also appears to have been increased recruitment into foundation and diploma pathways, for those who did not meet admissions requirements for direct entry to undergraduate courses, or wanted to avoid the HKDSE after Secondary Five.

The UK should have a new competitive advantage that Hong Kong students can complete their degrees there in three years, rather than four in Hong Kong and the USA. Moreover, under the previous system, the top Hong Kong students were not available for UK higher education as they were recruited by local universities in an early admissions scheme after Secondary Six. Major differences in the grading system between the old HKALE and the GCE A-level had also deterred many HKALE students from applying for UK. The HKDSE, which is included in the UCAS Tariff, resolves this issue.

There are, however, some new negative trends, and feedback from agents suggests that neither the UK nor Australian markets saw the much anticipated  market bonanza from the double cohort year.  Many students who applied to study overseas did so for insurance and chose local options instead.

HKDSE results: market implications
Overall, the new academic structure has nearly doubled the number of Hong Kong students completing secondary school and qualifying for undergraduate study. A total of 72,620 students sat the HKDSE, compared with 40,515 sitting the last HKALE. Amongst the HKDSE candidates, 26, 552, or 36%, met the minimum entry requirements for local undergraduate courses, compared with 18,725 HKALE candidates (46%). However, the HKALE only catered for the top third of a year group, while all students can complete the HKDSE. 

With publicly-funded undergraduate places limited to 15,100, the increase in qualified students should be good news for the overseas market. However, the increase in self-financed undergraduate places in Hong Kong , to 7,400, and large number of sub degree places – 37,500 -  meant that most of the double-cohort students could find places locally. 

Local universities could meet the demand from most HKDSE students with good results, achieving most subjects at Levels 4 and 5. Decision making to study abroad by students with these grades is likely to be influenced by the benefits of an overseas education, and being able to complete a degree in three years in UK rather than four in Hong Kong, rather than lack of places in Hong Kong. UK universities with lower requirements (200-360 UCAS points) have been able to recruit from the larger pool of students less likely to secure publicly-funded places.

Local competition may become increasingly fierce in the coming years, particularly as the secondary school age population is set to decline by nearly one third by 2020.

Most UK universities have now published their admissions requirements for HKDSE students. However, feedback from the market is that students, parents, agents and guidance counsellors are finding the variations in how these are presented as confusing. Some institutions require the straight equivalence of three GCE A-levels. Some ask for six subjects. Some restrict offers to elective subjects only, others will accept core subjects and specify according to subject area applied for.  It is expected that many institutions will review their admission requirements after the first intake of HKDSE students.

More detailed analysis of the first HKDSE results and their implications for UK can be found below. www.educationuk.org.hk/siem/Double_cohort2_FINAL.doc

Hong Kong’s reforms are also having a significant impact on the school and post-16 markets.

At school level, inevitable nervousness associated with reforms are still driving parents to consider overseas options, or international schools in Hong Kong. The latter are heavily over-subscribed, despite new schools such as Harrow International School, which opened this September, coming on stream. UK independent schools are reporting sustained interest from Hong Kong. Major public discontent this autumn over government plans to introduce a compulsory national education curriculum has also increased unease at a time when the HKDSE itself should be overcoming its teething problems. The Education UK schools and colleges exhibition, held in October, saw an 10.3% per cent increase in numbers attending, and positive market feedback from the 36 schools and colleges participating. This included that parents are interested to send children overseas at younger ages.

Although there is no longer a natural progression route from the former Hong Kong Certificate of Education Examination (HKCEE) to GCE A-levels, UK schools and colleges have established their own admissions strategies for Hong Kong students. This involves more flexible pathways based on students’ individual abilities and maturity. Increasing numbers of schools are taking students into sixth forms after Secondary Four in Hong Kong, when most students will have turned 16. Previously, they made this move after Secondary Five and the HKCEE.

Market surprise
However, the market surprise has been a new trend amongst Hong Kong universities to recruit  Hong Kong students from UK schools after completing the their GCE AS-levels. This is despite the understanding that Hong Kong universities should recruit students who have completed comparable qualifications to the HKDSE, which according to UCAS Tariff is equivalent to GCE A-level for subjects achieved at Levels 3 and above, not GCE AS-level.

The popularity of this route back to Hong Kong higher education has been a concern for schools that found themselves with unexpected unfilled places in Form Seven/Year 13, and also for UK universities hoping to recruit Hong Kong students completing GCE A-levels in the UK. In fact, the Independent Schools Council  had noted the increased popularity of Hong Kong as a study destination in its 2012 Census. Numbers leaving UK schools for Hong Kong universities are expected to increase further this year, particularly for subjects such as medicine and law that have a competitive advantage when studied in Hong Kong due to local regulatory  requirements and opportunities for career progression.

Post-16 pathways
Now all students can complete secondary school in Hong Kong  the HKDSE has inevitably resulted in a larger pool of school-leavers who need other pathways. Just over 46,000 did not meet entry requirements for undergraduate courses. UK international foundation and diploma course providers and FE colleges recruited actively from this pool, though will they face tough competition from local sub-degree and vocational courses.

There is also a new trend of students leaving the Hong Kong system after Secondary Five, before completing the HKDSE, and enrolling in international foundation programmes in UK and Australia.  UK universities are divided as to whether they will accept students completing such programmes after Secondary Five entry.

Conclusion
Overall, the phasing in of the HKDSE should result in more students being recruited into UK undergraduate courses, and to other pathways, whilst UK schooling remains attractive to those with misgivings about the new system and appreciate the benefits of an international education. The HKDSE provides new opportunities to market to a wider range of schools in Hong Kong. Local schools, through the guidance counsellor network, are now more receptive to helping their students consider and apply for overseas options.  However, despite some growth from the local sector, it is likely that international schools, and UK schools and colleges, will remain the major source of Hong Kong students for UK higher education. UK institutions will face intense competition with the expanded local provision, with Hong Kong universities not only competing for students from the local system, but those in the traditional market-strongholds of the international and UK boarding schools.