Secondary schools in Hong Kong are currently facing falling student populations, due to low birth rates in the last couple of decades. This article by the South China Morning Post includes some relevant data and explanation of this trend.

The number of children entering secondary schools has reportedly dropped 12 per cent from 64,758 in 2012 to 57,151 last year. This number will fall further next year before it gradually picks up again from 2017. This decline is a continuation of  what has already been seen in terms of the number of Hong Kong Diploma for Secondary Education (HKDSE) graduates. In 2014 there were 79,572 HKDSE candidates, which fell to 74,131 this year.

Longer term, student populations will recover, partly driven by children born to Mainland Chinese parents in Hong Kong (and therefore having residency rights). This is evidenced by a currently increasing primary school student population, which will flow on to secondary schools in terms of new entrants between 2017 and 2024.

Commentary by Steve Corry, Regional Business Development Manager, British Council:

While the UK should remain a very popular study abroad destination, this falling number of secondary school students will likely mean that there will be a smaller pool of students for UK institutions to recruit from in the next five years.

When conducting strategic planning, institutions should consider that Hong Kong will for the foreseeable future remain the third largest market in East Asia for student recruitment (after China and Malaysia), however the days of growth as seen in the last few years are now likely over. For institutions with an existing profile in Hong Kong, maintaining current student numbers would be a more realistic target than achieving growth. In the longer term future the market will likely increase again from around 2020.

For further market insight on Hong Kong, please contact Steve Corry, Regional Business Development Manager, steven.corry@britishcouncil.org.hk.