Summary

The Chinese government recently released its annual statistical communiqué, showing the rate of development in 2015. The number of new undergraduate students increased to 7.4 million, despite a fall in the number of high school graduates, but the rate of growth fell to 2.3 per cent compared to 3.1 per cent the previous year. Meanwhile, the number of new postgraduate students increased to 645,000, up 3.9 per cent over the previous year.

In contrast upper and lower secondary schools both saw a drop in their student numbers, caused by China's declining youth population. At the upper secondary level there was no change in the number of academic senior high school entrants compared to a significant drop in the number of new students enrolling in vocational high schools.

Meanwhile, China's R&D sector continued to see strong growth, with a 9.2 per cent increase in R&D expenditure and a 32 per cent rise in the number of patents granted.

The Ministry of Education has also released figures on the total number of outbound Chinese international students. The number of Chinese young people going overseas in 2015 increased to 523,700, up 13.9 per cent over 2014. As in previous years the overwhelming majority of these students paid for their own studies, with 481,800 self-funded students compared to 25,900 government-funded and 16,000 employer-funded students.

Analysis by Kevin Prest, Senior Analyst Analysis

The growth in Chinese domestic undergraduate students shows that China's increasing tertiary enrolment rate still more than compensates for the country's declining youth population - a positive sign for overseas universities looking to attract Chinese graduates to study at the Masters level. However, the falling growth rate indicates that this will not always be the case, and the number of Chinese undergraduates may peak in the next few years.

Meanwhile, the faster growth in local postgraduate students is largely a result of increasing government investment in this sector. Although expansion of undergraduate options is no longer the top priority in most provinces, there is still fierce competition for postgraduate places and the Chinese government aims to increase both the quantity and the quality of postgraduate education. From the point of view of UK universities this will make local study a more attractive option for Chinese students, which will have a disproportionate effect on less prestigious overseas institutions.

Despite the strong growth in Chinese students going overseas, UK visa figures show that the UK is not taking full advantage of this growth. Although the increase in Tier 4 student visas issued to Chinese students in 2015 was an impressive 9.6 per cent this is still significantly lower than the total growth in outbound Chinese students, showing that the UK is losing market share to alternative destinations.

Sources

• National Bureau of Statistics - Statistical Communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2015 National Economic and Social Development (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201602/t20160229_1324019.html)
• Xinhua – More Chinese Students Study Abroad in 2015 (http://www.china.org.cn/china/2016-03/17/content_38050528.htm)