Summary

On 31 May, China announced that married couples are permitted to have up to three children, a policy shift to replace previous two-child limit in 2016 – which itself replaced the country’s previous one-child policy. The change was approved during a politburo meeting as an approach to tackle the challenge of China’s ageing population after recent census data revealed that the population grew at its slowest rate since the 1950s.

As well as loosening birth restrictions senior politicians have also discussed plans to reverse the adverse social climate, such as outdated marriage customs and high bride prices, improving service quality for prenatal and postnatal care, promoting education equity and increasing the supply of quality education resources while reducing families’ education expenditure, and improving the mechanism of maternity leave and maternity insurance.

Analysis by Kevin Prest, Senior Analyst, IES

China’s leaders have recognised the negative effects of China’s low birth rate, which is not only caused by the former one- and two-child policies but also social factors. However, there are questions over how effective the new policy will be. The switch to a two-child policy in 2016 had a much smaller effect on birth rates than the government had expected, and falling birth rates are a common problem worldwide which no developed country has been able to reverse.

In any case, it will be several years until any new children born as a result of the policy will be old enough to enrol in schools. Any increased demand for pre-school education will only be felt from 2025, while children will not enrol in higher education until 2040 at the earliest.

Sources:

1. China announces three-child policy in a major policy shift (cnbc.com)

2. Three-child policy: China lifts cap on births per family (yahoo.com)