UCAS stats show growth in international undergraduate applicants

UCAS have recently released statistics for undergraduate applications in the current cycle (2023 entry) as of the 30 June deadline. This is a strong indicator of demand for undergraduate places, although it should be noted that the figures at this stage are for applicants rather than acceptances or enrolments and a small proportion of students do apply after the June deadline each year under the straight-to-clearing route.

Key highlights on international students from this data release include:

• The total number of international applicants reached 138,050 as of June 2023 – up 2.4% compared to the same point last year, but still slightly below the previous peak of 138,770 applicants in June 2020. The growth rate is also below the 3.4% growth we saw at this point in last year’s application cycle.
• The growth was driven by non-EU countries, with undergraduate applicants from the EU seeing another slight drop (-3.3%)
• China is still by far the largest international source of undergraduate applicants, with 30,700 prospective students. But the number of applicants from Mainland China was down by 2% compared to last year. One major factor behind this drop was the country’s zero-covid policy, which was still in place for much of the current recruitment cycle – while most Chinese students continue to apply before the January “equal consideration” deadline, the period between that deadline and June 30th saw 520 more China-domiciled applicants than the same period the previous year, an increase of 21%.
• India continues to be the second-largest sending country and contributed the largest portion of net growth, with applicant numbers rising by 9% to 12,910. However this is substantially lower than last year’s 19% growth. While undergraduates are not affected by the recent policy change around student dependents, it is possible that some of the recent rhetoric on this issue has had a negative effect on Indian students’ perception of the UK.
• Nigeria has also seen a drop in applicant numbers – down 5% vs the same point last year – which is particularly notable as the trend as of the January deadline was extremely positive (+23% vs January 2022). As with the trend in India, this might be a reaction to negative rhetoric which has made the UK feel less welcoming to Nigerian students.
• Despite the 3% fall in EU applicants, this trend was much more positive than the 18% drop in 2022 and the 43% drop in 2021. Most sending countries in this region saw a drop in applicant numbers, including Ireland which was not affected by the post-Brexit changes to UK immigration and student funding rules. In addition the trend across EU countries was less consistent than the last couple of years – 2021 and 2022 saw much sharper drops in Eastern European countries than Western Europe, but this was no longer the case for 2023 applicants. These facts suggest that Brexit is probably no longer the main factor driving EU student trends.
• Trends were mixed across other major senders. The USA, Malaysia and the UAE all saw growth in undergraduate applicants this year, while Hong Kong has seen a continued decline at a similar rate to last year.

Readers should note that not all applicants accept a place at a UK university, and changes in the acceptance rate could affect the number of students who eventually come to study in the UK. In addition, a large proportion of students recruited to UK HE courses are postgraduates, who are not included in the recent UCAS data release and sometimes have quite different application trends.

The table below gives a summary of the top 30 sending countries or regions, which includes 7 EU and 23 non-EU markets.

Statistics on UCAS applicants from all countries can be found on the UCAS website at https://www.ucas.com/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-releases/ucas-undergraduate-applicant-releases-2023-cycle/2023-cycle-applicant-figures-30-june-deadline .