Pressures on mobility to the UK - Looking deeper into recent student data

Pressures on mobility to the UK

It was fantastic to learn back in January that UK higher education had recruited a record number of international students in 2020-21, and in doing so had met the targets of the international education strategy early.  Anecdotal reports suggest that many institutions have continued to recruit high numbers of international students in the current academic year too.

The hard work and resilience of the UK HE sector during particularly challenging times have been supported with sensible, positive, popular policy changes (namely the Graduate Route visas) allied to clear international messaging about the opportunities these present.  And all of this has been underpinned by the continued strong reputation of the UK as a study destination, amplified by the globally recognised Study UK brand and campaign.

This success has led some commentators to suggest that the target should be increased, and an assumption that numbers will continue to rise.  But it is important to take a closer look at the latest data to gain a greater understanding of what is really going on, and to understand the short to medium-term outlook.

Our analysis would suggest that:

• Much of the recent growth has come from students enrolling on postgraduate taught programmes, often from very price-sensitive home countries
• Now is the time for consolidation and focus on maintaining and strengthening student links, particularly undergraduate routes

Slow growth in new students

From 2019-20 to 2020-21, total international student enrolment in HE institutions in the UK increased by over 8 percent, but the growth in newly enrolling international students grew by just 3 percent – the slowest growth since 2016.

The growth in 2020-21 appears to have mainly been driven by students staying on in the UK (possibly attracted to remain in the UK for additional years of study by the introduction of the Graduate Route, or dissuaded from returning home by Covid restrictions). The proportion of non-first-year students increased from 42.8 to 45.4 percent, and this shift in the profile of the student body may skew the overall picture and could be an indication that recently observed increases are not necessarily sustainable.

A slowdown in mobility from China (but China is still clearly the largest sender)

New student entrants from China declined by over four percent – the first time these numbers have dropped since 2005 - but there is still a heavy reliance on China with over 30 percent of new students coming from the country.  Looking deeper, the number of new entrants from China at the undergraduate level declined by 8 percent.

And perhaps this decline in new undergraduate students from China is a sign of things to come from other major senders as five of the top ten undergraduate sending countries saw declines in new enrolments.

It should be noted of course that the latest UCAS end-of-cycle data indicates continued growth in UG applicants from China, although conversations with many UK institutions suggest a slow down and some declines in overall numbers from China.  However, what is clear in both the UCAS and HESA data is the decline in demand and enrolment from the EU.

Student enrolments from countries within the EU have been in rapid decline, and it is likely that this decline will continue, especially for UG enrolments.  New enrolments from the EU constituted over one-quarter of all new international students in 2016, but this proportion has now dropped to just one-fifth, and this decline is set to steepen as UCAS data shows that applicant numbers from the EU dropped by 40 percent for 2021 entry (and January 2022 data shows a further 19 percent fall).

Recent growth is from enrolments in Post Graduate Taught programmes and tends to be from price-sensitive markets.

The student visa data shows most of the growth is concentrated in India, Nigeria and Pakistan - these are mainly master's students' markets.  While the UK master's programmes are desirable, it is questionable whether these increases will make up for declines from the EU and slowdown in China. PGT students only spend a year in HE in the UK. The cost of recruitment is significantly higher than that of undergraduate students who typically spend at least three years in the UK.

In addition to the higher churn rate of PGT students, many of the countries showing recent growth are known to be highly price sensitive.  Whilst these students may be particularly attracted by the Graduate Route visa offer, these markets are vulnerable to inflationary pressures.

Considering the international context, it's encouraging to see that UK surged ahead of USA and Australia in recent years.

UK HE attracts more new students annually than any other study destination – a sure sign of the international reputation and that the brand of UK HE is working.

Considering UK, USA and Australia: since 2016, the UK has increased the share of internationally mobile students hosted within this group by nearly 8 percentage points, and in 2020/21 recruited over half of all international students studying in these three countries.

But the international picture is changing – The latest declining numbers reported by the US may be in part due to ramifications of policy in recent years which hasn’t always been open and welcoming to international students, and Australia has effectively been closed to international students since 2020. But the USA will recover and will recover quickly – it’s crucial that the UK continues to work hard to promote an attractive offer to potential international students in the face of this and other headwinds.

The current picture for international student mobility to the UK is healthy, but this hasn’t happened by magic, and we mustn’t assume that numbers will automatically continue to grow for the medium term. 

At these times, we cannot be complacent with regard to international student mobility.  We need to continue to recognise the hard work of the UK HE sector, and the value of a globally recognised study brand.  Rather than raising targets and expecting to attract more and more, focus should be given to increase the efforts on UG recruitment to the UK to cushion the impact of declines in UG recruitment from the EU and China.