India overtakes China as the top student source market

The Home Office released its most recent data on UK visa issuances last Thursday (February 23^rd). This data release gives information on visa issuances in the final quarter of the year, meaning that we can now compare 2022’s full-year data to previous years.

The overall trend was a strong growth in student numbers compared to 2021: the number of sponsored study visas issued to main applicants increased by 29 per cent to almost 486,000. Around a sixth of these visas were issued in the fourth quarter of the year, which was slightly below the proportion in 2021 but still well above the pre-Covid trend when the fourth quarter generally made up only around 7 to 9 per cent of student visa issuances.

Unless otherwise noted all figures in this article refer to visas issued to main applicants, i.e. the students themselves.

India overtakes China to become the top student source

The latest data confirms that India is now the UK’s top sending country, with almost 140,000 visas issued in 2022. This represents 73 per cent growth over 2021, or around four times the visas that were issued in 2019. The main driver of this change is likely the Graduate Route post-study work scheme, which is proving particularly attractive to students from India.

By comparison, Mainland China – which had been the UK’s top source country in terms of visa issuances since 2010 – saw a substantial 13 per cent decline in student visas. The final quarter of the year saw a particularly steep decline, with visa issuances to Chinese citizens being less than a quarter of the number issued in the same period of the previous year.

To some extent the drop in China’s visa issuances in the fourth quarter of the year might be linked to the country’s turbulent domestic situation towards the end of 2022. Widespread lockdowns in November were followed by mass infections in December after the “zero-Covid” policy was suddenly abandoned. However, several other parts of East Asia saw a similar (although less extreme) trend. For example, Hong Kong saw a 50 per cent drop in Q4 visa issuances compared to the same period of 2021, while Q4 visa issuances in Malaysia and Thailand dropped by 37 and 26 per cent respectively. This might reflect a return towards pre-Covid application patterns when only a small proportion of visas were issued in the fourth quarter of the year.

South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa continue to show the strongest growth

Looking at overall annual visa issuances, South Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries saw another year of very strong growth. Aside from India, the largest net increases came in Nigeria, Pakistan and Bangladesh, which saw growth of 140 per cent, 95 per cent and 72 per cent respectively compared to 2021. Sri Lanka also saw extremely strong growth in percentage terms with visa issuances up 137 per cent year-on-year.

Most of the major East Asian student sources saw more modest growth, with visas issued to Malaysian students increasing 8 per cent while Thailand grew by 12 per cent. However the number of visas issued to Hong Kong nationals was down substantially, dropping 14 per cent compared to 2021; part of this decrease may be due to the new British National Overseas visa which allows many Hong Kongers to work and study in the UK without needing a student visa. The strongest-performing country in the East Asia region was Vietnam, where visas were up 52 per cent compared to 2021 although they are still below their pre-Covid level seen in 2019.

Elsewhere in the world the number of students coming to the UK from EU countries saw a relatively small 2 per cent increase, with countries from the eastern part of the bloc still making up a substantially smaller share of total visa issuances compared to their pre-Brexit share of students in the UK. In the wider European region the number of students coming from Russia fell by around a third, while Ukraine also saw a substantial 19 per cent drop. Student numbers from the Middle East were up 7 per cent, partly driven by very strong growth from Iran.  Students from the Americas were down 2 per cent overall, driven by a 1 per cent drop in the US – by far the largest source country in the region – as well as larger declines in Mexico and Colombia.

The table below gives the trend for all the top 30 sending countries, showing the total number of sponsored study visas issued to main applicants (excluding dependents) and their growth compared to the previous year and the pre-pandemic total in 2019.

Child students decline despite overall visa growth, while dependents have increased dramatically

The table and analysis in the previous sections refers to all sponsored study visas. Despite the overall growth, the number of Child Student visas issued in 2022 dropped slightly compared to the previous year, while General Student visas were up 30 per cent overall.

One important reason behind this drop in younger students is a more general decline in student mobility from several of the top countries and regions that send school-age students to the UK – including China, Hong Kong and Russia. Meanwhile one major driver of growth has been interest in Graduate Route post-study work visas, which are less relevant for younger students.

Another widely-reported trend in this year’s visa issuances is a large increase in the number of students bringing dependents. In addition to the main applicants discussed above (i.e. the students themselves), almost 136,000 dependents were issued visas to come to the UK – an average of 0.28 dependents per student. This ratio has doubled compared to the previous year, or more than quadrupled compared to the proportion in 2019.

India makes up a large share of Graduate Route visas, but China is under-represented compared to its student population

2022 was the first full year since the Graduate Route was introduced. An overall total of 72,893 students were granted visas under this route in 2022, allowing them to stay and work in the UK for up to two years (or three years for PhD graduates); this total does not include dependents.

Indians were by far the largest nationality in terms of Graduate Route visas issued, to a much greater extent than their share of student visas issued. Nigerians also made up a larger share of Graduate Route issuances than their share of students would suggest, while China was significantly under-represented compared to its proportion of all students in the UK.

Data source

Full data for all countries can be downloaded from https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/managed-migration-datasets