India overtakes China as the top nationality for UK study visa issuance, while East Asia has yet to recover to its pre-pandemic level

The latest data on UK study visa issuance was released on 24^th November 2022. This covers visas issued in the third quarter of 2022 (July to September), which has historically made up a large majority of annual visas issued due to the timing of the UK’s academic year.

Total study visa issuance has reached a new record high of 314,937 sponsored study visas in the third quarter of 2022 or a total of 408,331 in the first three quarters of the year. This represents a 29% increase over visa issuances in the third quarter of 2021, or a 33% increase for the year-to-date figure compared to the same period last year – pointing to exceptionally strong growth in international student recruitment by the UK for the 2022/23 academic year.

[Unless otherwise noted, all figures in this post refer to visas issued to main applicants, i.e., the students themselves]

Regional and country trends
India has overtaken China as the UK’s main recipient of study visas for the first three quarters of 2022. Almost 109,000 visas were issued to Indian students, up 76% compared to the first three quarters of 2021. In contrast the number of visas issued to citizens of Mainland China fell by 2% to 98,736.

Looking at other top student sources, visas issued to Nigerian students increased by 142% to reach almost 45,000, while Pakistan also saw visa issuances more than double and overtook the US to become the 4th largest study visa recipient country. Other major sending countries in the South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa regions also saw very strong growth, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Ghana and Kenya.

Other than China, most sending countries in the East and Southeast Asia regions saw an increase in visa issuances, although in most cases not enough to return to pre-Covid levels. For example, the number of visas issued to Malaysia was up 13% while Thailand was up 18%. Vietnam was the top performer in the region (in terms of % change) with the number more than doubling compared to the first three quarters of 2021. Study visa issuance to Indonesia stands out within the region as being significantly ahead of its pre-pandemic level and Japan is also marginally in growth territory in this respect. 

Hong Kong is a notable regional exception with an 11% drop in student visa numbers. This may be affected by the British National Overseas policy which allowed many Hong Kong families whose children might otherwise have come to the UK as international students to instead immigrate to the UK.

As 2021 was the first year that EU students needed a visa to study in the UK, this is the first time we can compare year-on-year trends for EU students. The EU as a whole saw a relatively small increase in visa issuance (3%) compared to the first three quarters of 2021. Among the largest sending countries in the region, Germany and Italy saw relatively strong growth (11% and 8% respectively), while Spain declined by 6% compared to last year. Countries from the eastern part of the EU continue to be much less prominent than they were in pre-Brexit student enrolment figures, although they did see somewhat stronger growth this year compared to most Western European countries.

Also worthy of note is a more than doubling of visa issuance to students from Iran, continued strong momentum in Turkey, while visa issuance to students from Russia has seen a substantial drop (-38%) due the ongoing war with Ukraine.

The table below gives the trend for the top 30 sending countries in terms of student visa issuance from January to September 2022.

Visa types
Growth was concentrated in the General Student category, with Child Student visas declining slightly (-0.4%). This is largely because the countries with the largest growth all send relatively low proportions of younger students, while countries sending a large proportion of school-age students – including mainland China, Hong Kong, the EU and Russia – were relatively weaker in terms of growth this year.

One prominent trend this year, which has already been noted by the Home Office, is a major increase in the number of dependent visas. Compared to the figures described above, which show a 33% increase in the number of visas issued to main applicants (i.e. students), the number of visas issued to dependents has increased by 175%. Each student brought an average of 0.24 dependents in the first three quarters of 2022, compared to just 0.11 the previous year and 0.05 in the same period of 2019. This increase in dependent numbers is concentrated in the same South Asian and Sub-Saharan African countries that saw the fastest growth in student visa issuances and is likely due to an increase in mature students attracted to the UK by work opportunities under the Graduate Route.

Concluding comments
This data release suggests that India is on track to become the UK’s largest student recruitment market, overturning more than two decades of China dominance in this regard. However, the visa stats do not cover international students studying online from their home country, which played a crucial role in supporting recruitment from China during the first year of the pandemic (2020/21 is the latest year for which HESA enrolment date are available) nor do they cover students who were already present in the UK prior to the start of 2022. Also, the share of visas issued in the fourth quarter (October to December) has become more pronounced in recent years. Thus, we won’t know the full picture for 2022 until Q4 visa stats are released in February 2023. Even then, visa stats may well understate the true level of recruitment from China if online study remains significant. 

Nevertheless, the extent to which India has closed the gap with China, and speed with which this has occurred, underlines the dramatic geographical shifts currently taking place from East Asia to South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa - representing both opportunity and risk for the UK education sector. It also appears that the negative impacts of Brexit on recruitment from the EU region have bottomed out, with signs of growth returning to that market, albeit from a far lower base level.  

Data source
The full data can be downloaded from www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/immigration-statistics-data-tables-year-ending-september-2022