UK visa statistics show a marked slowdown in student recruitment

Following two years of record growth, UK issuance of study visas has stalled in 2023, based on statistics for the third quarter of 2023 released by the Home Office on 23 November. Due to the timing of the academic year Q3 is the main period for visa issuances, so this gives a useful window on recruitment trends for the 2023/24 academic year.

UK student visa issuance up slightly by 0.5%.

A total of 408,966 student visas were issued over the first three quarters of the year (January to September 2023), not including visas issued to dependents. This represents an increase of 0.5% compared to the same period of 2022. This is far lower than the 33% growth we saw in the equivalent period in 2021 and the 69% growth we saw in 2020. And if we look specifically at visas issued in the third quarter of the year the number actually fell slightly, down 4% vs Q3 2022.

In comparison, the other major Anglophone student destinations all saw much stronger growth in student visas over the same period. Australia’s student visa issuances in the same period were up 34% compared to the first three quarters of 2022, while Canada saw 27% growth and US student visa issuances were up 11%. While student recruitment by Australia and the US contracted sharply during the pandemic and is thus recovering from a relatively low historic base level, all four countries’ student visa issuances are now substantially higher than the pre-Covid level. (All these figures exclude dependents and in the case of Australia only include visas issued outside the country, for better comparability with the UK data).

China retakes its place as the UK’s top student source.

This time last year, India overtook China to become the top nationality for UK student visa issuances. But this year the situation reversed, with visas issued to Chinese citizens up 6% to almost 105,000 while India saw a 5% drop to slightly below 103,000 issued visas in the January to September period.

Nevertheless, the number of visas issued to Indian students is still almost four times the level we saw in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic and the introduction of the Graduate Route post-study work scheme. In comparison, visas issued to Chinese students remain lower than the number seen in 2019. It is also possible that the full-year figures will show India slightly ahead of China, as historically a larger proportion of Indian nationals receive visas in the fourth quarter of the year.

While China’s resumed growth is welcome news, the rate of increase is still far slower than in other Anglophone countries – especially Australia which saw 55% year-on-year growth in visa issuance for the January to September period. That said, much of Australia’s visa issuance this year relates to recruitment which occurred in previous academic years, when its borders were closed and new students enrolled online from their home country. Separate data show that Australia’s commencements of Chinese students for the first six months of 2023 are up 8% on the same period in 2022, a more modest rate of growth than suggested by the visa stats.  Also, the US and Canada remain below their pre-pandemic issuance of study visas to China. Nevertheless, the UK is set to lose market share in China this year as its main competitors recover lost ground.

Among other leading student senders, Nigeria saw a large drop in visa issuances, with visa numbers down 17% compared to the same period in 2022 – a sharp contrast to the fast growth seen over the last few years.

The UK’s fourth largest source country, Pakistan, saw a 26 per cent growth in student numbers – but this was much slower than last year when visa issuances more than doubled. Meanwhile, the trend in the US was basically flat, with a 1% increase over 2022.

Elsewhere in the world:

• Trends in South Asia were variable – aside from India and Pakistan as described above, Nepal saw another year of very strong growth with visa issuances almost doubling, while Bangladesh saw a 36% drop, and Sri Lanka saw growth of +13%.
• Aside from China, most of the other major East Asian markets saw a year-on-year decline. Hong Kong and Malaysia both saw substantial drops (-16% and -10% respectively) while Thailand was down 6%, and South Korea dropped 3%. Taiwan was an exception with 7% growth. In the case of Hong Kong, visa issuances are now 31% below the pre-Covid level; however, this is misleading as the number of newly recruited students from HK reached a record high in 2021/22. Many utilised their eligibility via the BN(O) immigration pathway, and thus do not appear in student visa statistics – though overall BN(O) applicants have fallen sharply in 2023.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana saw strong growth of 30% although its student numbers continue to be far lower than Nigeria’s. Kenya, the only other SSA country with over 1,000 visa issuances in the January-to-September period, also saw growth with a 22% increase year-on-year.
• The MENA region saw overall growth of +12%, with most of the main senders increasing their student numbers. Iran saw particularly strong growth of +51% compared to Jan-Sep 2022, and has also emerged as a major sender of students to Canada and Germany. Egypt was the only major sending country in the region that experienced a decline.
• Visas issued to EU students were up slightly overall (+2%), with most of the main countries in the region seeing only a small change in student numbers – Germany, France and Spain were all down by around 1%, while Italy saw 4% growth. However, Eastern European countries saw a relatively stronger growth trend, with visa issuances to Polish students up 10%, while Romania and Bulgaria saw growth of 13% and 17% respectively.

UK student visa issuances by source country

The table below gives the trend for the top 30 sending countries in terms of student visa issuances from January to September 2023.

Strong increase in student visas issued to children, notably for China.  

While the overall trend for student visas was relatively flat, Child Student visas were up 11.5% compared to the first three quarters of 2022. As Child Student visas make up a small proportion of total visa issuances, the trend in General Student visas was only very slightly lower than the overall growth rate, at 0.3%.

Mainland China saw a particularly large increase in Child Student visas, up 90% year-on-year, showing a recovery in boarding school enrolments after a major drop during the pandemic – although the figure is still well below the pre-Covid total. Meanwhile the number of child students from Hong Kong dropped slightly (-3%) while Germany saw slight growth (+2%) – being the other big senders of child students to the UK.

Dependent visa numbers continued to increase in advance of January 2024 deadline.

While the UK announced changes to its policy on student dependent visas in May 2023, these changes will only come into effect from the beginning of 2024. In the first three quarters of 2023 the number of dependent visas was up 19% overall compared to the same period last year – significantly faster than the number of main applicants (students). There were 0.28 dependents per main applicant in this period, up from 0.24 in the first three quarters of 2022 and 0.05 in the equivalent pre-Covid period.

Nigeria, India and Bangladesh all saw increases in dependent visas despite a decrease in visas issued to the students themselves – although the growth rate in all of these countries is far lower than last year. Pakistan also saw much stronger growth in dependents (+122%) than in main applicants (+26%).

Reported increase in post-acceptance dropouts.

Beyond the trends in visa issuances, there are some indications that universities are seeing an increase in the number of post-acceptance dropouts – students who accept a place but then decide not to come to the UK. If some of these students have already applied for a UK visa before changing their mind, this may suggest that the trend in new enrolments may be more negative than suggested by visa issuances.

In response to feedback from several UK universities, the British Council administered an online survey of agents and counsellors, via our Agent and Counsellor Hub. We received a total of 191 responses, including 50 agents / counsellors in India, 36 in Nigeria, 22 in Pakistan, and 83 other respondents spread across 31 different countries. Overall, 53% of respondents said that they had seen an increase in post-acceptance dropouts, with the remainder split equally between those reporting a decrease (24%) and those seeing no change (23%). These proportions varied a lot by country, with those reporting dropouts being highest in Nigeria (78%) and India (68%), followed by Pakistan (50%), but only 35% of agents in the "others" group reporting an increase in dropouts.

Reasons behind the trends.

Comparing the UK’s student visa trends to other major destinations such as the US or Australia shows that the UK’s share of international students has decreased compared to last year. To some extent this was inevitable – the UK significantly increased its market share during the Covid-19 pandemic thanks to being more open than its competitors - and the current trend may represent a reversion towards historic norms. However, based on the British Council’s observations and discussions with agents in key countries there appears to be other factors that are having a negative effect on student numbers this year.

The largest year-on-year drop in total students was in Nigeria, despite the country’s student numbers growing by more than 100% last year, and visa issuance for the first six months of 2023 also showing growth. Based on discussions with agents and institutions as well as the survey mentioned above, the main factor in this reversal appears to be changes in exchange rates - the Naira moved from a fixed exchange rate to a floating rate in mid-2023, leading to a sharp drop in the currency’s value. Students planning to study in the UK are facing tuition fees around 80% higher in local currency terms compared to the point when they applied, leading to many students dropping out late in the process.

An important secondary reason in Nigeria was the change in the UK’s policy on dependent visas, announced in May 2023. Despite the policy not coming into effect until January 2024, several agents reported that this was an important factor in the drop-off in the current recruitment cycle. In part this may be because of students being unclear about the policy and thinking they would be affected, while some commented that the change leaves students wary of potential changes to other policies such as the Graduate Route.

This policy uncertainty was also a factor in India, which saw a drop of several thousand students compared to the same period last year. More broadly, several agents in India reported that perceptions of the UK have become more negative compared to a year ago, due to a combination of the visa policy change, negative reporting about the UK’s economic situation, and stories of students in the UK having difficulties finding work or housing. This has led some to switch to alternative destinations, such as the US which has seen strong growth in recruitment from India this year.

The declines observed in East Asia would appear to be related to the more competitive international environment facing the UK this year, as well as weaker economic growth within the East Asia region, and depreciation of regional currencies against the pound.

Strong performance in the MENA region is likely related to recovery in issuance of government funded scholarships, of which the UK is a major beneficiary.

The EU region is continuing to recover from the sharp contraction seen in 2020/21, led by growth in Eastern Europe where recruitment was most negatively affected by post-Brexit policy changes.

Overall, the contraction in visa issuance in Q3 2023 (compared with Q3 2022) and the reported increase in post-acceptance dropouts suggests that the UK could well be facing a decrease in recruitment of international students for the 2023/24 academic year.